Forschungs- und Innovationsprojekt
Nischenmodelle (Projekt B 76)

Climate change is a current challenge for forest practitioners. Shifting species composition of stands from vulnerable species to species that are less susceptible to upcoming climate conditions is a crucial adaptation to persevere the productivity of forests. The Bavarian State Institute of Forestry has developed cultivation risk maps for the most important tree species grown in Bavaria. Rare native and non-native species like Prunus avium, Quercus rubra, Robinia pseudoacacia or Pinus nigra are not considered until now. Nevertheless, this species are expected to play a bigger role in the future because they combine heat with frost tolerance. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable information.

Planting recommendations for non-native species have often been built on growing trials in the past. These trials are time intensive and often failed. This was due to the lack of ecological information about the area of origin and a lack of accordance with ecological conditions at growing site. Today there is an easy access to large data sets containing ecological information so that comparisons are possible.

Therefore, within this project niche models will be developed for a selection of rare native and non-native tree species. After evaluation of the models, the potential distribution of the species will be predicted for Europe. The maps and summary information of the species will be implemented in the Bavarian Forest Information System BayWIS. This serves as a base for a realistic judgement on the climatic cultivation risk.

15 tree species were selected from practitioners, based on different criteria. The species are expected to be of high interest for Bavarian forest owners. Niche models were developed for 11 of the species. Data for niche models was not sufficient for the rest.